More than a few lazy journalists in Philadelphia have committed attempted punditry this morning. Not unusual for the day after an election, but remarkable for the way these folks have tossed aside easy facts in favor of simple biases. It’s a different kind of expectations game.

In markets and politics we often judge winners and losers against expectations, and brands and politicians often seek to temper  expectations in the weeks before judgment day. It’s not the number you post — funds raised, profit earned, endorsements garnered — but whether it was higher or lower than expected.

Who’s expecting? Analysts. In the marketplace, those are the folks at brokerage houses who recommend what to buy and sell. In politics, it’s journalists themselves.Some reporters are comfortable gaging expectations based on their own research, observations and experience. Others leave the expectations-setting to an agreeable pool of professors, pollsters and impartial (unemployed) consultants. Either way, the reporter’s analysis of facts and fact-sayers is setting the expectations bar. And that’s just fine; it’s a time-honored game and there are, after all, facts — numbers — at the root of these expectations.

Just not this morning. According to many journos who could easily know better, yesterday’s voter turnout was pathetic, anemic and a disgrace to democracy. This was apparently due to the rain, and perhaps ennui.

As I say, they could easily know better. Yesterday’s number of Democrats voting for mayor, as a percentage of Democratic registration — 19 percent — was higher than the 2005 primary for D.A. (15 percent) and even higher than the five-way, open-seat D.A.’s race of 2009 (13 percent). In other words, yesterday’s turnout was higher than it had been in many previous, comparable elections. In spite of the rain.

Ah yes, the old weather-dampens-turnout myth. Yes, myth; it’s been studied. (If weather affects turnout, does it favor one party more than another? Of course it’s been studied!) Gomez, Hansford and Krause did find a statistically significant correlation between weather and voter turnout: For each inch of rain, expect slightly less than 1 percent lower turnout. We had 0.36 inches of rain at the airport all day yesterday.

So our reporter/analysts aren’t working with numbers, leaving them with little to set expectations by except their own biases: machine politics, apathetic voters, corrupt and content, etc. The new expectations game, at least with these writers, is about tweaking or tempering their personal prejudices.

This is about more than a few little facts. Reporters tossing aside easy facts in favor of simple biases is also a sign of corruption and contentment, which had journalist Sasha Issenberg wondering on Twitter what happened to the real news of the day:

Dear Phila newspapers, if a cartoonish ex-con spends $0 and wins 25% off an incumbent mayor the story is not “Nutter easily defeats Street.”

But why let the facts get in the way of a good comfortable story.

Tags: Journalist, Percentage, Philadelphia, Twitter, Voter turnout